Homie Election of 2020

The Homie Election of 2020 occurred from November 13-14, 2020. Gowanite Party candidate Big Shauf defeated the incumbent and Italia party nominee Keshav Italia as well as Gowanite candidate Will Waters and dark horse independents FredBoat and Kanye West.

Background
The leadership of Keshav Italia was a time of great change for the homiehood. Italia had, for the most part, only really held nominal power, as he was backed by the Homie Council in order to oppose the dictatorship of Hunter Gowan. His leadership was dominated by prominent members of the council, with Will Waters, with the title of Homie Enforcer, holding power for a good portion of it, and Gowan himself even seizing power for a time. However, during the latter stages of his reign, Italia had been able to maneuver himself into a position of more prominent political power, and enacted more of his signature policies, such as massive deregulation, open borders immigration (except to the Jews) and an imperialist and expansionist foreign policy. During the latter stages of his leadership, the homiehood grew extensively in territory and international influence; nevertheless, with stagnant wages and a variety of corruption and sex scandals, he was considered vulnerable to challengers.

The Election
Candidates began to emerge in early 2020. Kesh's approval rating was fairly high at 57%, and was considered a heavy favorite to win reelection. Will, who had dominated council politics for years, was considered the favorite for the Gowanite Party nomination. However, the ascension of Logan Foust to the position of chancellor following the resignation of Hunter Gowan as well as the Great Homie Economic Collapse of 2020 changed the picture. As Keshav's approval rating dived, his influence waned and Logan unleashed many of the former emergency powers of the chancellor position to enact broad reforms, including the collectivization of many industries and universal AR-15 distribution. By July, many political analysts considered him the de facto leader of the Homiehood. In May, he officially declared his candidacy for homie leader. Several candidates, most notably Big Shauf, withdrew their candidacy in order to endorse Logan. For the first few months, he was considered a heavy favorite for both the Gowanite party nomination and the general election, with some polls showing him having as much as a 28 point lead on Kesh.

In August, he face of the election changed again, however, when Logan suddenly and unexpectedly dissapeared without a trace. After a month of much confusion, it became apparent that the election was now wide open. William Waters, the previous favorite for the Gowanite party nomination, re-emerged as the favorite. Jonathan Shauf re-declared his intention to run again, taking up a similar populist and radical lane to that of Logan. However, he was unable to attract the same waves of support as Logan had, in part to to his unpopularity with the base as a result of being a former Kesh supporter. The election was thrown into further confusion when the entire Gowanite party board resigned, including Hunter himself, making debates or an organized primary impossible. As both Shauf and Will refused to withdraw their nominations, there were 3 major candidates closing in on election day. The split in the Gowanites was thought likely to result in Kesh being re-elected. Going into election day, the betting odds were at 67% Kesh, 22% Willl, and 7% Shauf (with 4% for various other candidates).

However, the election resulted in a massive upset, with Shauf defeating both Will and Kesh by wide margins. Despite the unexpected result, the election was thought to be clean and fair, and both Will and Kesh peacefully accepted their new administration positions.

Analysis
There has been many different viewpoints about how such a surprising election result happened. Many suggest that the recent expansion of the Homiehood led to traditional models that tended to focus on a few key demographics failing, as they failed to properly weight newly registered voters and immigrants who tended to break for the more progressive and populist Shauf over more conservative candidates. Others suggest that Shauf's support was more of a silent majority who had always supported Gowanite policies but tended to not get too involved in politics due to the stigma associated with those policies. Still others point to the reform-minded base turning to what they saw as another reformist candidate after they felt Keshav had abandoned them. More research will need to be done to determine the extent of the truth in each of these outlooks.